9. $TSLA: Risk + catalysts

1. Risk: TWTR 인수를 위해 Elon Musk가 TSLA 주식 매도할 필요성이 있는지 여부(주가 폭락 가능성)
레이어드 블로그에 잘 정리됨: https://blog.naver.com/wjsmug/222708932606
=> 대출, PE, 주식담보대출로 조달하므로 주식매도 필요성은 없다는 의견.

2. catalysts 
$TSLA catalysts - 4/21, $1,600 PT 6-12 mo 
Reference: Gary Black@garyblack00, Tesla Herbert@teslaherbert

1/ FY’22 revisions Apr - 신규 리뉴얼 모델
2/ Shanghai full reopen May - GigaShanghai 재개로 인도량 증가
3/ Q4 = Stock split announce May + 실행 - 주식분할 + 다우존스 편입(10:1)
- Proposal in May and vote in June?
- stock split point => 5/1 or maybe 10/1? => 10:1 ratio could mean DOW inclusion.
4/ Biden $8K EV credit Jun
5/ S&P Inv Grade Credit Jul - Inv=investment 투자등급상향
6/ New gigas (UK, East US) 4Q - 다른 new giga로는 2번째 gigaChina 유력
The second factory in China will be determined within 2022 and will be built in three phases, with the first phase completed by the end of 2023.
7/ Q3 or Q4 = FSD wide release 4Q - 4단계?
8/ Cytruck launch FY’23Q1
9/ M-$25K launch FY’24 = Compact Car Design Reveal
9-1/ Robotaxi launch FY’24 - 캐시우드가 3억 간다고 하는 근거
10/ Q4 = Dojo Launch
11/ Q4 = Q3 Earnings w Record Revenue
11-1/ 23Q1 = Q4 Earnings w Record Revenue
12/ Q4 = Tesla Semi (> delivered)
13/ Q4 = Supercharger Partner (>100 sites)
14/ Q4 = Licensing with one legacy OEM
15/ Q4 = App Store Launch
16/ Q4 = Tesla Bot Demo