2. Sentiment Speaks: The Absolute Stupidity About The Market

Apr. 12, 2022, Avi Gilburt

Summary
1. The inflation news seems to have pushed the market higher today.
2. Was the news the real cause of this rally?
3. Sometimes it pays to look a bit deeper than the common superficial views of the market.

지난 밤, 예상보다 높은 인플레율에도 불구하고, 주식시장은 1% 상승에 의아했을 것. 뉴스는 시장 움직임의 재료긴 하지만 방향 결정요소는 아님.

<내러티브>
1. 지수 상승 => "recession 두려움을 야기하는" 인플레율 상승
2. 지수 하락 => "달러자산에 회귀하게할" 인플레율 상승

=> 뉴스에 거래하는 것인 이렇게 웃기는 일.
이유를 굳이 찾자면 인플레율보다는 오히려 gas number가 더 영향 클 수 있음. 

<셀프 질문꺼리>
1. 가스가격 상승으로 사람들이 가스 구입 자체를 피할까?
2. 중요하지 않은 비용이 있을까?

뉴스는 이름붙이기 나름일 뿐.
Daniel Kahneman's 좀더 나은 해석: